Crazy Uncle Dave's Sport-O-Rama

Ron Santo (HOF) One Down Two To Go

2011-12-06T05:35:00.001-08:00

Say what you want about the late Ron Santo. He wore his heart on his sleeve. It did not take much time to figure out the 3 things he was most passionate about:  1. He loved the Cubs and wanted nothing more for them to break their century long World Series Championship drought.

2) He wanted to cure Juvenile Diabetes. Not only did Santo, a diabetic, raise awareness of the disease through his playing career and subsequent broadcast career, he also raised over 60 million dollars for JDRF (Juvenile Diabetes Research Fund)

3) He wanted to be enshrined in Cooperstown, New York in Baseball's Hall of Fame.

It was obvious that he wanted to achieve all of those goals in his lifetime and the consummate competitor would not be satisfied until those missions were accomplished. On December 3, 2010 Santo passed away without achieving any of those lofty goals.

The most frustrating thing for me personally was the HOF snub. The other 2 goals will take much serendipity to accomplish, the HOF was a no-brainer. He definitely had a HOF career as a third baseman for the northsiders.      I think 3 things shied voters away from voting for him when he was on the ballot as a player.

1) He never got to the post season and did not have a chance to wow the casual fan and generate enthusiasm beyond Chicago and the National League. There was no inter league play this time, so American League fans did not have much opportunity to see his body of work.

2) There were 3 more HOF worthy players on his own team. These men Ferguson Jenkins, Billy Williams and Ernie Banks were so worthy of the Hall of Fame that they have all been enshrined there. Many voters didn't seem to want to put a 4th player there when the Cubs had little or nothing to show for such an honor.

3) He was no Brooks Robinson.  While Santo, in my opinion, was definitely the best third baseman in the NL in his career, Robinson of the Baltimore Orioles was the best in the Majors.

I don't think that any of these reasons were valid enough to keep him out of the HOF in the original voting or when he appeared on the Veteran's committee ballot. For the above mentioned reasons or others the voters decided he was not HOF material.

Until now. Almost a year to the day after his death Cooperstown has come calling. The Ron Santo legacy is now 1/3 complete. Now we need to find a way to beat Diabetes and a team in the World Series.

I wonder what team team they will enshrine him for?

Circus without a Circus Trip :(

2011-11-01T20:19:00.000-07:00

Every year about this time in Chicago, like clockwork, a familiar pattern repeats itself. The Bulls begin their NBA season and almost as soon as it began they hit the road for thier longest trip of the year. This road trip is generally called the Circus trip as the trip is necessitated by the Ringling Brothers Barnum and Bailey Circus coming to town and landing smack dab @ the United Center AKA the house that Jordan built.

This year the NBA season has not gotten underway so while The Greatest Show on Earth must go on, it can do so without disturbing one of it's tenants. Sure the Blackhawks still have to take a Circus trip of their own, but hey that's just Hockey.

The Bulls loss can be your gain if you are in the Chicago area.

The circus will be at the United Center November 16th through the 27th

It will also be at the All State Arena in Rosemont starting tomorrow and running through the 13th.

I am passing on a special promotion for the event. You can get 4 tickets for $44.00 for weekday shows or save $4.00 per ticket on weekend *Friday -Sunday) shows.

So be a good sport and head over to the UC or ASA and have a great time.

For more info on the event click here to chck out my other blog.

Sports Fragments

2011-10-20T22:12:00.000-07:00

After I began this blog I found out that managing two blogs is a little much for me. I basically have been lying low recently and not posting much of anything here. I have decided that from now to the end of the year I am going to try to post more regularly here.

Today I will start by participating in a meme called Friday Fragments.

It is basically where you just share bits and pieces that would normally not make it into your blog. Since this is a sports blog mine will all be sports related.

Fragment 1 I was mistaken for a Cubs fan today. I received a book today from paperback swap about the 1906 world series between the Cubs and the White Sox. There was a yellow stick from the previous owner that said go Cubs! Now, I am a follower of the Cubs and can speak intelligibly on them, but when it comes to the Sox and Cubs I am much more a fan of the White Sox.

It is kind of unusual for a White Sox fan to not hate the Cubs. I like the Cubs, they are my second favorite team. I grew up a Cubs fan and used to make the annual pilgrimage to Wrigley each year with my family. My 10 year old switched to the Cubs a few years ago. I indulge him this betrayal, as my father indulged me by taking me to about a White Sox game a year in my youth.

Fragment 2 Speaking of the Cubs, I think the move to get Theo Epstein from the Red Sox and have him serve in some capacity in the Front Office is a wonderful one. When that announcement is finalized, I will be interested to see what kind of moves they make. I am a big Ryne Sandberg fan and hope that one of Epstein's moves is to hire Sandberg to manage the team. We shall see.

Fragment 3 My son's soccer team went 7-0-1 last spring. This year most of his teammates and the coach moved up to the next age level. My son did not. He and the new coaches son are the only players that remain from last year's team. This year after 6 games the team is 3-2-1. I am assisting the coach on the sidelines during the games an even had to coach 2 of the games while our coach was out of town. We are 2-0 in those games, not that I'm keeping track :)

I am kind of glad that my son is on one of those win 1 week lose the next teams this year. I was afraid that going undefeated last season and only 1 defeat the season before that would give him the idea that such success is common. This year he is playing the best soccer he ever has and is enjoying himself and learning good life lessons win or lose.

Fragment 4 Now that the Rangers and the Cardinals are tied 1 game all in the 2011 World Series, it might be a good idea to share who I am rooting for.

This is a complex question for me. Normally, I cheer for the American League team as a victory bodes well for the White Sox. I also like to cheer for the team that hasn't won the World Series before or in a while. These two factors put me in the Texas Rangers camp. The Cardinals won it all in 2006 and while the Rangers finally made it to the World Series for the first time last year, thwy did not win.

On the other side of the coin, I like the Cardinals. They are like the Minnesota Twins of the N.L., they always seem to end up in the mix each year even when they are not expected to. Tony LaRussa who led the White Sox to their first playoff appearance is now the long time manager of the Cards. Also when I coached T-Ball for 2 years our team was the Cardinals. Also, John Rooney one of the announcers for the 2005 White Sox, and quite possibly the best play by play man in the business is now an announcer for the Cardinals.

So basically I am torn. My tradition based rooting system says Rangers and my root for the people I like mentality says Cardinals. I am hoping for a 7 game series and don't really mind which way it goes.

That's all the fragments I have for now. Check out the rest of Friday Fragments at Half Past Kissing Time by clicking here.

White Sox Week in Review

2011-07-08T23:46:00.001-07:00

On my other blog I participate in a little meme called Six Word Saturday. I have done it here before. The skinny is you give your six words and if you want you can explain them. So, now that we've explained that go review the title of this post.

Here are my six words:

I go to work. Sox lose.

Last Friday, I started a job at a box factory. It is an assignment from a temp company. I work the second shift 3-11. We didn't work on Monday as it was the 4th of July. Since then every day this week the White Sox have played or finishing playing while I have been making boxes. They now have lost 4 games in a row. This may not seem like a big deal. But it is. Box making is hard work and generally speaking my family is asleep when I get home, I would like a bit of good news like say a White Sox victory. Also, last week they got to .500 for the first time since early April. For those stopping in from Six Word Saturday who might not know what .500 means it means they have won as many games as they've lost. Now with these 4 losses they are back to below .500 where they will remain through the All Star break and perhaps the rest of their season.

Maybe if I quit my job they will start winning again. Although back then they only won 1/2 the time and I didn't get paid. So, I think I'll keep working.

For more Six Word Saturday click here.

Vote for "PaulStar"

2011-07-06T12:01:00.000-07:00

Not sure why he didn't make it the first time.

2011-07-04T11:52:00.000-07:00

But you can still vote Paul Konerko into the all star game by clicking here and voting him in in the final vote.

Good Lorenzo Charles Reflection.

2011-06-28T22:31:00.000-07:00

I was staying up late working on my other blog, tweeting and watching the White Sox lose yet another extra inning game when I saw a tweet from a former pastor of mine regarding this piece at SI.COM. For whatever reason I felt compelled to link it here.

Maybe it's because my last post here was about the NCAA tournament. Maybe because I remember the 1983 NCAA Finals very well because I graduated high school this year. Maybe it's because Lorenzo Charles was 47 and I'll turn 47 in a few months. Not sure exactly why I am sharing it here. But, like my pastor tweeted, it's a great article by a great sports writer. This is also a golden basketball moment . . .

My thoughts, condolences and prayers go out toLorenzo's friends and family.

Hopefully I'll post here again before another former pastor tweets about some sports moment. I was waiting to post until the Sox got rolling again. As Dr. Phil would ask "How is that working?"

NCAA Round 2 Bracket Progress

2011-03-19T06:31:00.000-07:00

Day 3. Dave -Winners: West Virginia, Kentucky, Cincinnati, U. Conn, Temple, San Diego State, Richmond, Pitt, Butler, Kansas State,Wisconsin, Gonzaga, BYU, Florida . Losers: Louisville points lost: 4.5, Michigan State points lost 1.

Amy - Winners: West Virginia, Kentucky, Cincinnati, U. Conn, Temple, San Diego State,Pitt, Butler. Kansas State, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, BYU, UCLA, Florida. Losers: Vanderbilt points lost 1, Louisville points lost 7.5.

SEE PREVIOUS POST FOR POINTS EXPLANATION.

Day 4. Dave- Winners: Ohio State, Marquette, Syracuse, North Carolina, Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Texas, Kansas, Illinois, Purdue, Fla. State, Notre Dame. Losers: Villanova points lost 1, Georgia points lost 1.

Amy - Winners: Ohio State, George Mason, Syracuse, Washington, North Carolina, Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Texas, Kansas, Purdue, Notre Dame. Losers: Xavier points lost 1, University of Nevada Las Vegas points lost 1, Georgetown points lost 1, Texas A&M points lost 1.

Results after 2 rounds:

points earned

Dave: 28.5 (1.5, 27)

Amy: 27 (1,26)

Possible Remaining Points:

Dave: 91

Amy: 86.5

NCAA Round 1 Bracket Progress

2011-03-17T20:31:00.000-07:00

As I said last time Amy and I have embarked on a bracket with 100 possible points. Instead of writing down everyteam we picked here. I will just check in after the end of the round tell you where we moved and where we lost ground.

Day 1. Dave - Winners: Clemson and UNC Ashville
Amy - Winners: Clemson Losers:Arkansas Little Rock points lost .5

Day 2. Dave - Winners: University of Texas - San Antonio, Losers: Southern Cal points lost 1.5*
Day 2. Amy - Winners: Univerity if Texas - San Antonio. Losers: Southern Cal points lost .5*

Round 1 results
points earned
Dave: 1.5
Amy: 1
Possible remaining points:
Dave 98.5*
Amy 99*

*The amount of points lost can differ even when Amy and I picked the same team. This will differ when one of us picked the team to progress futher than the other. For example Amy had Southern Cal losing in the second round so she only lost the 1/2 point that USC failed to win in the first round. I on the other hand picked U.S.C to win in the second round as well so I lost the point I expecting them to earn in the second round as well as the point they failed to earn in the first.

Even though I currently have more points than Amy does she has a potential for 99 whereas my celing because of the U.S.C loss is 98.5

NCAA Tournament Picks - A Precursor

2011-03-16T13:28:00.000-07:00

I love systems. Back in the good old days when the NCAA tournament was 64 teams I had a great dare I say perfect 120 point system for scoring the NCAA tournament picks. There were 6 rounds. 32 games and winners in the first round. 16 in the second. Eight in the third. four in the fourth. Two in the semifinals and one game in the 6th round to determine the eventual champion. If you pick a team to go to the second round and they do you get 1 point if they don't zero. Pick a second round winner and you get two more points. Three for third round winners. 4 for when your team advanced to the final four. Five if they make it to the Championship game. Six more if the won it all.

So if you picked Duke to win it all last year, like I did you would net 21 points on the Blue Devils alone. I love my system because it was incremental and elegant. I loved the way the numbers broke down per round 32 possible points in round 1 32 more in round 2. Which made for 64 possible points in the opening weekend. 24 possible points in round 3 and16 more were available to the successful prognosticator in round 4 for 40 total points in the second weekend of the tournament.
In my system, many people are eliminated by the second weekend as there are only 16 points available onc you whittle the teams to four. It's how you pick the second and third round that often make you victorious among your peers.

When a few years back they expanded the field to 65, I had no real problem with it. The play-in game was scored as a1/2 point if you picked the victor. This would make for an excellent tie-breaker.

This year the field was expanded to 68 teams and instead of a tiebreaker a 7th round was added to the schedule. Using my current system it made for a rather inelegant 122 point tournament. Revamping my system to have 1 point for round 1 winners 2 point for second round winners up to 7 for the champion yielded a cumbersome 171 point total. The point distribution was very lopsided as well with 96 points in rounds 2 and 3 alone. I was going mad trying to decide between the two flawed systems and each time I would explain it to my wife, she would say you need guys!

I finally figured out a great system for scoring a 68 team single elimination tournament. At least one that has 64 teams in the second round. 1/2 point for picking a round 1 winner 1 point for a round 2 winner and 1.5 points more for making it the sweet sixteen. 2 points for picking a team who makes it all the way to the elite 8, 3 points for picking a final four team, 4 points for your team making it all the way to the championship game and 6 points for winning the whole ball of wax.

It's incremental, but not elegant and what I like best about it: The total points of the tournament now equal 100 which turns out to be elegant after all. Well at least I have a functional system until the committee messes with the number of teams again.

Six Word Saturday.

2011-02-18T22:31:00.001-08:00

I am a frequent contributor to Six Word Saturday from my main blog. In addition to the six I penned from HSD I have a sports related Six to share here:

Pitchers and Catchers report. Nuff' Said!

This past week spring training began for all major league baseball teams and the Royals and Nationals as well. (Just kidding K.C. and D.C.) It is one of my favorite times of the year. Each team can start afresh. There is a revitalization and renewal in the Arizona and Florida air. A "this could be the year." mentality percolates in the hearts and minds of fans, players, managers and owners alike.

The pitchers and catchers report in about a week earlier than the position players to start getting ready for the season. I am very excited about all the White Sox moves during the off season and am curious to see how they will gel in Spring Training. I was a little disappointed that Ryne Sandberg did not get the managerial gig on the North Side, But I am interested to see how Camp Quade will shake out.

Soon enough opening day will roll around, but lets enjoy the hopefulness that is Spring Training while we can. For more Six Word Saturday click here.

No 25th Anniversary Present for Da Bears!

2011-01-23T15:31:00.000-08:00

The Chicago Bears were unable to win the most important game in their storied rivalry between the Green Bay Packers. They fell to the Cheeseheads 21-14 in a game where the winner advanced to the Super Bowl. The Pack will either play the Steelers or the Jets in 2 weeks time.

Hall of Fame 2011 Votes and Picks

2011-01-04T22:52:00.000-08:00

It's time to tell you who I would vote for IF I was a voting member of the BBWAA.
.

Too bad I don't have time to go into more detail. Like many of these players prospects, maybe next year.

If I had 10 votes, the 10th vote would go to Edgar Martinez (1 down from last year)

If I had 9 votes, the 9th vote would go to Larry Walker. (new on the ballot)

If I had 8 votes the 8th vote would go to Bert Blyt leven (1 up from last year)

If I had 7 votes the 7th vote would go to Dale Murphy (same as last year but not on "official" ballot this time.)

If I had 6 votes the 6th vote would go to Fred McGriff( up 2 from last year.)

Which brings us to my official unofficial ballot. There are 5 candidates who I would vote to for the Hall of Fame if I had the vote. Last year there were 7 I would have sent to Cooperstown. Murphy, I decided was not quite worthy of the honor. Robin Ventura failed to get 5 %of the vote last year and Andre Dawson was elected to the Hall. This leaves 4 from my ballot last year and 1 newcomer.

If I could only have 5 votes, my 5th vote would be for Lee Smith. Smith is up one place on my ballot from last year.

If Icould vote for only 4, my 4th and final would be cast to former Houston star Jeff Bagwell.

If my maximum vote # could only be 3 the third vote would go to Roberto Alomar. This is one spot up from where I placed him last year.

If I was limited to only 2 votes my second vote would be for Harold Baines. This is one up from where I had him a year ago.

If I could only vote for who I thought was the most deserving Hall of Fame candidate this year, my vote would go to Tim Raines. This is also 1 place up from where I had him last year.

That's who I would vote for. But now let me put my prognosticators hat on. I think there will be 2 players elected this year. Alomar and Blyleven. I think 4 first timers will receive 5 % or more of the vote. If I had to guess who I would say Kevin Brown and Rafaeal Palmeiro in addition to Walker and Bagwell. If it's not 4 I believe it will be more not less.

So those are my votes and picks. I can't wait to find out what will happen.

HOF 2011 returning players

2011-01-04T20:50:00.000-08:00

Last week I promised some insightful commentary on the hall of fame voting that will be announced tomorrow. I was quite busy during the holidays and ran out of time to be able to go into as much detail as I did last year. Here is some info on all those returning to the ballot in 2011 by order of who has been on longest. Much of this is a rehash of last year's posts but I have included the 2010 voting performance as well.

Dave Parker is on the ballot for his 15th and final year . Parker played for 19 seasons beginning with the Pittsburgh Pirates (1973-1983) and ending his career with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1991. In between he played for the Cicinnati Reds (1984-1987), Oakland A's 1988-1989, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, and California Angels (1991). When Parkers playing days came to a close he had amassed 2712 total hits, 339 homers and a lifetime batting average of .290. He played outfield for his most of career where he won 3 consecutive gold gloves (77-79) and was DH the majority of his last 4 seasons. Parker was the 1978 NL MVP, runner up in 1985, a 7 time all star and the all star MVP in 1979.

Parker has been on the ballot since 1997 his best year came in 1998 when he received 24.5 % of the vote. In 2005 Parker had 12.6% of the vote and was up to 15.2% in last years balloting.

Analysis : Players on the 15th ballot who eventually make the Hall in the BBWWA process generally are increasing in % of votes year after year and closing in on the 75% mark. Jim Rice, For an example who was voted in in his 15th year in 2009 received 64.8 % in his 12th election, 71.2% in his 13th, 72.2% in his penultimate election and received 76.4 % when he entered the Hall. Rice's low water mark of 29.4 % in his 5th election is 5 percentage points better than Parker did in his best year. Outlook: Nothing shy of a miracle will make Parker a Hall of Famer on the writer's ballot.

Bert Blyleven is on the ballot for his 14th year. Blyleven began his career pitching for the Minnesota Twins (1970-1976), spent a season and a half with the Texas Rangers (76-77), 3 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates (78-80) 4 and a half years with the Cleveland Indians followed by a return trip to Minnesota (1985-1988) and ended his playing days with the California Angels (89-92). Blyleven retired with a lifetime era of 3.31, 3701 strikeouts and 13 wins shy of the 300 mark. While Blyleven helped 2 teams win the World Series (Pittsburgh 79 and Minnesota 1987) with a combined 2-1 record and 2.35 ERA his trophy cabinet does seem to be shy of personal accolades. He had no gold gloves, only 2 all star appearances and never finished higher than 3rd in Cy Young voting.

Blyleven has been on the HOF ballot since 1998 when like Parker he received 17.5% in his first opportunity. Last year was his best showing as he received 74.2% of the vote. He has gained almost 35 percentage points in the last 5 years (Blyleven received 40.2 % in 2005).

Analysis and outlook: Looking again at Rice for comparison we find that Blyleven 74.2% last year in his 13th election is superior to Rice 63.5% at the same time in the process. 3 years. Considering that Blyleven missed election by less than a percentage point last year, he should be a shoe-in this time around.

Dale Murphy on the ballot for the 13th year played the majority of his career with the Atlanta Braves (1976-1990). He played 2 and a half seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies (1990-1992) and played in 26 games with the Colorado Rockies in 1993. Murphy held a lifetime batting average of .265, had 2,111 hits and 398 home runs. Murphy started as a catcher with the braves but played the majority of his games in the outfield. He was elected to 7 all star games, received 5 consecutive gold glove awards (82-86) 4 consecutive silver slugger awards (82-85) and 2 consecutive MVP seasons (82+83).

Murphy received 19.3% of the vote in 1999, his first year on the ballot. His high water mark was in 2000 where he received 20.8%. In 2004 he reached his low mark only appearing on 8.5 % of the ballots.In 2005 he raised that mark to 10.5% He has gained A meager 2.2% points between the election of 2005 and 2010.

Analysis and outlook: A serious HOF contender on his 13th ballot would be dramatically better positioned than Mr. Murphy. While his overall prospects are not as immediately bleak as Parkers, There is nothing in the voting record to show that Murphy will ever get in on the writer's ballot.

Jack Morris is on the ballot for the twelfth year. Morris pitched for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1990, the Minnesota Twins in 1991, the Toronto Blue Jays in 1992 & 1993 and finished his career with the Cleveland Indians in 1994. Morris finished with an era of .390, 2,478 strikeouts and 254 wins. Morris won World Series championships with 3 teams (Detroit 84, Minnesota 91 and Toronto 92) He had a 4-2 World Series and a 2.96 ERA. His individual trophy case is as barren as Bylevens with the exception of the 1991 World Series MVP and 5 all star appearances as compared to Bert's 2.

Morris has been on the HOF ballot since 2000 when he appeared on 22.2 % of the ballots. His best year was last year when he received 52.3% support an increase of 19 percentage points since 2005.

Analysis: With 4 years left on the ballot Morris is in a preferable but somewhat tenuous position. Last year Morris was only 2 points behind where Blyleven prior to his eleventh election. Blyleven was able to increase 14 percentage points on the road to his present favorable position. Last year I said that If Morris needed a double digit surge in one or two of the next few elections in order to avo id being on the outside looking in when his 15 years are up. Morris came close to that double digit increase last year when he raised 8.3 % from 44 to his present 52.3. The math says that incremental increases like that will get him to Cooperstown.

Don Mattingly is on his 11th year of the ballot. Mattingly played his entire career (1982-1995) as a first baseman for the New York Yankees. In Mattingly's 14 seasons for the Bronx Bombers he hit 222 home runs, maintained a lifetime average of .307 and had 2153 career hits. Mattingly made 6 all star teams, won 9 gold glove awards (85-89 + 91-94) and 3 consecutive silver slugger awards (85-87). He was the American League MVP in 1985 and the runner-up in 1986.

Mattingly has been on the ballot since 2001 garnering 28.2 % of the vote that year. 2001 was also the year he received the most support. He has only been on 20% or more of the ballots twice (the other year being 2002). He has gained almost 4 percentage points of support in the past 5 years (11.4 in 2005 and 16.1 in 2010).

Anaylysis and Outlook. Mattingly's 28.2% in 2001 would have made a good point to build on, instead his % decreases for a few years then increase for a few and then goes back down Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven both had less votes than Mattingly did in 2001 but by 2010 Blyleven had more than 4 times the votes Mattingly had and Morris had more than 3 times more. With 5 elections left Mattingly's only legitimate chance of being voted in by the BBWAA is by increasing his support about 12 percentage points each year and given his up and down history that does not seem likely.

Alan Trammell is on the ballot for the tenth year. He played his entire career for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1996. While he played occasional other positions for the Tigers including DH, He predominately played shortstop and did so each season he was in the major leagues. Trammell was a 6 time all star (80, 84,85,87,88, & 90), 4 time gold glove recipient, (80,81,83 and 84), 3 time Silver Slugger winner (87,88 &90) and the 1984 World Series MVP. In 1987 He was runner up for the AL MVP award. Alan hit .285 for the Tigers with 2365 hits and 185 Home Runs.
Like Andre Dawson who reached the magic 75% and was inducted last year, Trammel has been on the ballot since 2002. Unlike Dawson, Trammell has never even come close to the 75% needed for election. He was on 15.7% of the ballots in his first year of eligibility, was up to 16.9% in 2005 and hit a high water mark of 22.4% in 2010.

Analysis and outlook: In his first 8 elections Trammels support had been consistently in the teens. Event though he broke into the 20's last year, I have no sense of a wide spread appeal for putting Trammell into the Hall.

Lee Smith the lone returning relief pitcher is on his 9th year on the ballot. Smith pitched from 1980 to 1997. Beginning with the Chicago Cubs (1980-1987), then playing 2 and a half seasons with the Boston Red Sox (88-90), parts of 4 seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals (90-93). His later years he played on the New York Yankees (93), Baltimore Orioles (94). California Angels (95,96), Cincinnati Reds (96), and Montreal Expos 1997. He had a lifetime ERA of 3.03, 1,251 strike outs and 478 saves. Smith was chosen for 7 all star games (83,87,91-95). He was second in Cy Young voting in 1991 the year he won the first of his 2 consecutive NL Rolaids Relief awards for the Cardinals. He won the AL version of the award in 94 with the Orioles.

Smith has been on the ballot in 2003 when he received 42.3% of the vote. He dropped down to 36.6% of the vote in 2004 and in the last 5 years has seen that percentage rise from 38.3 in 2005 to a high water mark of 47.3% in the last election.

Analysis and Outlook: Smith's initial vote count and his current standing bode well for eventual enshrinement when viewed separately. Looking at them together makes one wonder why he has only moved up 5 percentage points in 8 elections. If whatever has been keeping him stuck in the 40's resolves himself there is plenty of time for Smith to get to Cooperstown.

Harold Baines who is on the ballot for the 5th year. Baines began and finished his MLB career with the Chicago White Sox. He actually played for the pale hose on 3 different occasions (80-89, 96-97, 2000-2001) In between he played with the Texas Rangers, (89,90) 3 stints with the Baltimore Orioles (93-95, 97-99, 2000), Oakland A's (90-92), and the Cleveland Indians in 1999. Baines approached the 3000 hit mark late in his career but finished well under with 2,866 hit 384 homers and had a life time batting average of .289. Baines, a six time all star (85,86,87,89,91, and 99) spent most of the 1980's as an outfielder and spent the 2nd half his career as a DH.

Baines first appeared on the ballot in 2007 appearing on 5.3% of the completed ballots. He had 5.2 % in 2008 ,5.9 % in 2009 and 6.1% last year.

Analysis and Outlook: With 11 elections remaining, it is too early to write Baines off entirely. However, just a small decrease in his support over the past 4 years would remove him from the ballot altogether.

Mark McGwire is also on his 5th year on the ballot. I would generally tell you what teams he played for and the statistics he compiled over his career, but as McGwire infamously once noted I am not here to talk about the past.Actually I am here to talk about the past so I will tell you that McGwire played for the Oakland A's form 1986 to 1997 and played for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1997 to 2001. He hit 583 home runs and once held the single season home run record at 70. The first baseman had 1626 career hits with a lifetime batting average of .263. McGwire was the 1987 Rookie of the year, won a gold glove in 1990, silver slugger awards in 92,96,and 98. The 12 time all star (87-92 and 95-2000) was the runner-up for the NL MVP in 1998.

McGwire first appeared on the hall of fame ballot in 2007 with 23.5% of the vote, had 23.6% in 2008, 21.6 % in 2009 and 23.7% of the completed ballots last year.

Anaylisis and Outlook: With career numbers alone McGwire would probably already be in the hall or be at least 30 - 40 more percentage points closer. Allegations and speculation about steroid use and his aforementioned inability to talk about the past has radically cut off his support. I don't expect his numbers to improve anytime soon.

Tim Raines is on the ballot for his 4th year. He played for the Montreal Expos (1979-1990 and 2001) Chicago White Sox (1991-1995) New York Yankees (1996-1998), Oakland A's (2000), Baltimore Orioles (2001) and finished up with the Florida Marlins in 2002. Raines had 2605 hits, 808 stolen bases and a lifetime batting average of .294. Raines played in seven straight all star games (1981-1987 and was the 1987 all star MVP. He won a Silver Slugger award in 1986 the year he led the National League with a .334 batting average.Raines first year on the ballot was 2008 when he received 24.3 % of the vote. In 2009 he was down to 22.6% but increased to 30.4% last year.

Analysis and Outlook: Receiving over 20% of the vote on your first two ballots and over 30 on your third is a pretty good way to start your bid for hall of fame induction. I also feel that Rickey Henderson's election on the first ballot in 2009 will ultimately increase his chances in the years to come as he is such a similar player to Henderson.

Roberto Alomar is on the ballot for the second year. He played (predominantly second base) for 7 teams (Padres, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Mets, White Sox, Diamond Backs) over 17 seasons. Lifetime .300 batting average. More than 2700 hits. More than 200 home runs. Within 25 of the 500 steal mark. 12 All Star appearances. 1 All Star MVP. 10 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers and 1 alcs MVP. Best MVP voting = 3rd

Alomar received 73.7% of the vote last year in his first election.

Analysis and Outlook: Alomar was just spitting distance (sorry could not resist) from induction last year. In my mind he is a no doubter for enshrinement come the summer.

Barry Larkin is also on the ballot for his second year. He played (predominantly shortstop) for 19 seasons with the Cincinnati Reds. Over 2300 hits 2 shy of 200 homers and a lifetime batting average of .295 and over 350 stolen bases. A 12 time All Star, with 3 Golden Gloves and 9 Silver Sluggers, Larkin was the 1995 National League MVP.

Last year Larkin received more than half (51.6%) of the writer's votes in his first election.

Analysis and Outlook: Larkin finished 4th among those returning to this year's ballot and second only to Alomar for first timers. He did much better than I anticipated his first time out of the gate and should be considered a very strong candidate for eventual enshrinement.

Edgar Martinez is on the ballot for the second year.He played 18 seasons (predominantly DH) for the Seattle Mariners. Over 2200 hits, 9 above the 300 HR mark and a career batting average of .312. Martinez was selected to 7 all star games, and won 5 silver slugger awards. Best MVP voting = 3rd.

Martinez received more than 1/3 (36.2%) of the writers votes in 2010.

Analysis and Outlook: A strong showing in 2010 may change the mind of those who say that a full time DH who was generally the second or third best offensive player on his squad is not HOF material. The next few elections will definitely show which way he is trending.

Fred McGriff is 1 of 4 players on the ballot for the second year. He played (predominantly 1B for 6 teams (Rays, Braves, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers) over 19 seasons. McGrifff posted a lifetime batting average of .284 with 10 shy of 2,500 hits and missing the 500 homer mark by 7. A 5 time all star with 1 all star MVP award and 3 Silver Sluggers. Best MVP Voting = 4th.

McGriff's name appeared on more than 1 of every 5 writers (21.5%) ballots last year.

Analysis and Outlook: If the criteria for selection was just nicknames alone, the Crime Dog would have been a first ballot hall of famer. I think his accomplishments are deserving of having him in the conversation for years to come. 20% of the voters in his first year was a pretty good chunk let's see how many more he can take a bite out of.

I will return tomorrow prior to the announcement and to say how I would have voted given 10 votes as I did last year. I will also prognosticate as to who I think will be voted in.

I will unfortunately not be able to discuss at all the first timers on the ballot.

HOF 2011 Prologue

2010-12-20T08:24:00.000-08:00

The 2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Writers ballot voting is underway. The results will be announced in early January. As I did for the 2010 voting, I will be breaking down the vote in several previews over the next few weeks. I will again reveal how I would vote if I were A voting member. I will also predict how I think the voting will turn out.

My predictions last year were (with actual results in bold):

I think there will be 1 player elected to the Hall this year and I think that player will be Andre Dawson.One player was voted in and that player was Andre Dawson.

I think the top 3 vote getters will be Dawson, Roberto Alomar, and Bert Blyleven. The top 3 vote getters were Dawson, Alomar and Blvleven.

Along with Alomar I think 3 other first ballot players are likely to get more than 5% of the vote and stay on for 2011. They are Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, and Edgar Martinez. 4 first timers were on the ballot received at least 5% of the vote (needed to remain on the ballot in coming years). These 4 were Alomar, Larkin, McGriff and Martinez.

Yes if you are scoring at home I went 3 for 3 in my predictions. Don't believe me? Click here for my predictions and here for the results.

I'll be back shortly after Christmas with a full HOF preview.

Ron Santo - My memories

2010-12-06T05:48:00.000-08:00

Cubs legendary third baseman Ron Santo died on Friday at the age of 70. Over the past few years many people have written about his quest to make baseball's hall of fame.is His death due to complications of cancer has increased that talk many fold.

This will not be one of those posts. I will just concentrate on some thoughts about growing up a Ron Santo fan. In the early 1970's I was a Chicago Cubs fan. These were the days of Billy Williams, Rick Monday, Glen Beckert, Randy Hundley and Jose Cardenal. My favorite players of that era were Ron Santo and Don Kessinger.

Some where between 1972 and 1973 I changed baseball allegiances from the Cubs to the White Sox. Within the next 3 years both my two favorite Cubbies followed suit. More about Kessinger at a different time. I will confine my thoughts to Ronny today.

Shortly before the 1974 season Santo was traded to the White Sox. As a big fan of his I was ecstatic. I did not realize that Santo himself was less than thrilled about the change in venue. He was basically forced away from the Cubs. They had wanted to trade him a few years before and were unable to do so because he had earned the right to approve all trades.

Santo with a lifetime batting average of .279 with the Cubs only hit 83 of375 (.221)for the White Sox splitting time between Second Base and Designated Hitter. (Bill Melton was firmly entrenched at Third, Santo's position with the Cubd hiss). Only 9 at the timeI did not realize how bad a season he was having. I learned later that he was contentious in the club house often complaining the star treatment my other south side hero Dick Allen was receiving.

After a miserable 1974 Santo decided to stop playing baseball. He returned to Chicago as a radio announcer on WGN in 1990. I remember helping my dad work in his garage when Santo announced his first game. If Santo ever makes it to Cooperstown it should be as a player. As an announcer he was brutal! The day he died, WGN did a special day of tribute for Him. Even then, some of the WGN announcers commented on what a bad (technically) announcer he was and how the Cubs were the only team he could have ever worked for.

This was of course, because he wore his love for the Cubs on his sleeve. He may not have been much of an announcer, but he was an excellent cheerleader. No one ever expected unbiased reporting from Ron, and I don't think anyone ever got it.

There is a lot more that I can and should say about Mr. Santo. But for now, I will just say I will miss you.

Brewers Should Think About Giving Ryne Sandberg Shot At Manager | Brew Crew Central

2010-10-20T20:27:00.000-07:00

This is the very idea I had when the Cubs didn't give HOF Infielder and Cubs AAA Manager Ryne Sandberg the Big Club Skipper nod earlier this week. As muh as I'd like Joey Cora to get the Brewers gig, I think putting Ryno in the managerial mix is a win-win for the Brew Crew and Sandberg.

Brewers Should Think About Giving Ryne Sandberg Shot At Manager | Brew Crew Central

White Sox in first place at all star break

2010-07-11T16:10:00.000-07:00

What a difference a month and 3 days make. On June 8th, the White Sox had lost 6 0f their last 10, were 5 games under .500 at home 4 games under on the road and 9 1/2 games behind the division leading Minnesota Twins. Pundits were calling for the dismantling of the team, and advocating trading Mark Buehrle, AJ Pierzynski, and Paul Konerko for whatever you could get for them. Since then, The Sox have won 25 of their last 30 games. 14-1 at home and 11-4 on the road. Sure, 13 of those wins came during interleague play which is where hurting A.L. teams can traditionally feast on their senior circuit counterparts. But during the same run the Sox have been 6-2 against the AL central where they had been struggling all year and went 6-1 against the Angels and Rangers the big guns of the A.L. West.

Baseball is a game of runs. It took the Sox 57 games to win 24. They've won 25 more in 27 fewer games. The Sox now find themselves 1/2 game in first place for the first time since opening day. Can it last? Who knows. But hopefully this will be the run that leads the White Sox to the World Series title I predicted at the beginning of the season. A prediction that looked none too promising a month ago.

I Can't Believe I'm Saying This

2010-06-24T20:50:00.000-07:00

The White Sox are playing the Cubs this weekend and as incredible as this is for me to imagine the series is now for just more than bragging rights and the inaugural BP Cup.

Let's go back 2 weeks to May 10th. The White Sox were on a 2 game winning streak and had won 5 of their last 10 games. However they were 26-33 overall and were 3rd in their division 8.5 games behind the division leading Twins. They were 7 games below .500 and just had finished their second consecutive sub .500 home stand. This was a far cry from the team that I had predicted to win the 2010 World Series. Traditionally when you get that many games below .500 it can take well over a month to approach the .500 level again.

At the Time, the Cubs were in a nearly identical situation. The Cubs were 27-33 overall, 3-7 in their last 10 in third place in their division, 7.5 games behind the then leading Cincinnati Reds.

The Sox beat the Cubs in the first two games at Wrigley which brought their winning streak to 4 (a season high) before losing in a monumental pitchers duel between Ted Lilly of the Cubs and Gavin Floyd of the White Sox on June 13th.

Since that Sunday night two weeks ago, the White Sox have yet to lose a game. They have swept the abysmal Pittsburgh Pirates, the mediocre Washington Nationals and the stellar Atlanta Braves. The 9 game winning streak has brought the white Sox over .500 for the first time since Opening Day. The Sox are 37-34 as they face the Cubs in a 3 game series at U.S. Cellular Field. They are still in third place in their division, but only 2games behind the second place Tigers and 2.5 games behind the Twins. Yes, in 2 weeks they have gained 6 games on the Twinkies. That is incredible! The Twins and Detroit finish up inter league play on the road this weekend against 2 very good National League East opponents (Mets and Braves respectively). This means that The Sox have a pretty good opportunity to gain even more ground on their division rivals. There is even a small mathematical possibility that The Sox could be in first place as early as Sunday Evening. That this has all transpired in the past two weeks is basically incomprehensible to me.

I''l be back in a few days with a Cubs Sox recap.

I hate when that happens. Actually I don't

2010-06-22T21:38:00.000-07:00

In yesterday's Sox game which Chicago won 9-6. A kind of crazy play happened in the 4th inning. Alex Rios was up and he hit a hard ground ball to Atlanta Braves Third Baseman Brooks Conrad. The ball got lost in Conrad's shirt and Rios was on board with a single. Don't believe me? Here is the play.

Almost exactly 3 years ago the same thing happened to Ryan Zimmerman of The Washington Nationals when they played the Cleveland Indians. Inter league play must have an effect on National League third baseman where they want to keep the ball.

Now it's the Cubs Turn

2010-06-09T20:16:00.000-07:00

There are 5 major professional sports teams in the city of Chicago. In 1985 the year I turned 21 none of these teams had won the championship in their league in my lifetime. The 1985 Bears took care of that very quickly and defeated the New England Patriots in early 1986 in the Super Bowl. 5 and 1/2 years later the Chicago Bulls led by Michael Jordan won the NBA championship and did so again 5 more times in the next 7 seasons. In 2005 my beloved Chicago White Sox won their first World Series since 1917.

Tonight the Chicago Black Hawks defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3 in overtime to win their first Stanley Cup since 1961.

As I type this, people are shooting off fireworks in celebration in my small suburban neighbor hood. Congratulations Hawks! Now there is just one Chicago team left to win the championship in their sport, the Chicago Cubs. Now that the Hawks have broken through maybe the Cubs will be next.

One inning down eight more to play

2010-04-25T17:12:00.001-07:00

A baseball season is a pretty long time. In order to put it in perspective, I put it in bite size chunks. The 162 game schedule lends itself to dividing it up in these chunks. In the past I have thought of it in 6 segments of 27 games each. This has been pretty easy to do as the season is spread over 6 full months (April to September) and each team plays around 27 games each month. This year I am dividing the season into 9 18 game units. I have done this, because baseball games are divided into 9 segments called innings.

I will now analyze the Chicago White Sox in their first 18 games. I hope to breakdown the Cubs and the leagues themselves in the next few posts.

When 7-11 and the Sox decided to end their affiliation with each other this year regarding their starting times (The past two seasons they vegan their home nights games at 7:11. I didn't think it was because they were going to start sponsoring their record. Yet, after the first 18 games the ChiSox find themselves at 7-11 and not for the Slurpees!

The Sox started the season out with a beautiful 6-0 slaughter of the Cleveland Indians at home they then dropped the next 4 games (two to the Tribe and Two to the Twins) before beating the Twinkies to end their initial 6 game Home Stand. It looked as if the White Sox were getting back on track after splitting 4 games in Toronto where they had not won for years. Unfortunately, they left Toronto on a losing note and then got swept by the Indians in Cleveland. The Sox came home on the right note beating the Tampa Bay Rays then dropping the next 2 games to them. They ended their first inning of the season with back to back walk off homers against the Seattle Mariners bringing them to a not very respectable 7 and 11.

Here are a few reasons Sox fans should be concerned.

In their first 13 games the White Sox sustained 2 four game and 1 two games losing streaks while only putting up back to wins on 2 occasions.
The Sox are second last in the AL in Hits, last in doubles and last in batting average.
The Pale Hose did not win their first series of the Season until April 24th. As of that date they have won 1 series tied 1 lost 4 including being swept once.

Here are a few reasons no one should jump off the ship quite yet:

It's still early! 18 games does not a season make.
Every team has one or two bad patches a season. There is something to be said about getting one out early.
The Sox are tied for first in the American League in Home Runs and Stolen Bases. They are tops in the AL in Strikeouts.
The Sox generally play well against the AL Central where they are now an awful 2-7. They have yet to play the Tigers and Royals who have they fared well against in seasons past. There is every indication they will play near the .550 mark they have had in the Central over the past two season. The Sox are currently above .500 against the rest of the league. If they can maintain that while they catch up in their own division, there is hope they can get right back in this.

I'll be back in 18 more games to give you a second inning synopsis.

As Another Begins

2010-04-07T22:25:00.000-07:00

I posted earlier this week about the end of college basketball season. Major League Baseball was getting into full swing (pun intended) as the NCAA tournament winded down. The tournament , anation obsession, is giving way to basbeball, the national past time.

Hopefully it will be a good season for both sides of Chicago. The Sox have started 1-1 and the Cubs have faltered out of the gate so far at 0-2. That's 2 down and 160 to go. Much too early to draw too many conclusion. I will be posting my musings each week as the season progresses.

One Season comes to an end

2010-04-05T21:32:00.001-07:00

Today signified the end of Men's college basketball season. What started as a field if 65 a few weeks ago was down to 2. When the tournament brackets were announced, My wife and I filled out our brackets as we do every year. We were pretty surprised to find out that her pick to win it all and mine were squaring off in the final game.

That's right, my wife picked Butler to win the NCAA tournament. She picked a 5 seed, whereas I went with perennial power house and #1 seed Duke.

What a game it was. If Butler would have made that desperation half court shot, they would have won. The shot was very close. It seems like every other year, I pick Duke to win it all, it just so happens that this year I was right.

They Ain't the Aints no more!

2010-02-07T19:11:00.000-08:00

The New Orleans Saints won Super Bowl LXIV by a score of XXXI to XVII. I mean if you are going to talk in roman numerals, talk in roman numerals!

This Saints won in their first ever Super Bowl appearance beating the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts seemed to be favored by almost every prognosticator out there. However, if you look at my post from yesterday, I picked the Saints after a lot of hemming and hawing. What can I say?

A Colts victory would have evened the annual AFC NFC grudge match to 22 games a piece. The saints pulled the NFC to a 23-21 mark with the win.

A brief history of the Super Bowl shows that the AFC won 8 of the first 11meetings, the NFC won 7 of the next 11 and 9 of the 11 after that. In the past 11 games the resurgent AFC have won 7, losing only four.

New Orleans Quarterback Drew Brees, a former standout at Purdue, was the bane of the Hoosier state tonight, completing 32 of his 39 passes for 288 passing yards and 2 touchdown passes.

Are You ready for some football?

2010-02-06T13:59:00.000-08:00

I have been meaning to come back here and give my Super Bowl pics.

The game is tomorrow, so I better get to it.

I have not been following the past two NFL seasons as much as I have done in the past. There are probably several reasons for this, but the main one is that I no longer work outside the home.

When I worked outside the home, I would listen to sports radio on my way to and from work. Even though I did not watch the game s over the weekend (We only use our t.v. to watch videos and d.v.d's I would get a pretty good idea of how teams were doing by listening on the radio. Now, I can certainly tune in the radio and listen at home, but I don't. This means I am no longer as knowledgeable about the NFL as I once was.

This doesn't mean that I don't have anything to say as to who I think will win.

Since my favorite team is in the NFC, I generally lean towards the NFC. However, there are some AFC teams I like (Steelers, Colts) and other NFC teams I dislike (Cowboys, Falcons, Vikings). I also tend to pick against teams that have won it all recently in favor of teams who have not.

So, I have been not sure whether to pick the Colts, whom I like, and who are on paper the superior team or embrace the Saints as the feel good story of the year. I also can't help over thinking the choice as a vote for the Saints is a way to express my dissatisfaction that the Colts last Super Bowl victory was at the expense of my beloved Bears.

I am going with the Saints. Much of the reason why I liked the Colts was because of former coach Tony Dungy who I have been a big fan of since his time with the Buccaneers. I also have a hard time rooting for the team that stuck it to the Bears.

While my heart says Saints, my head would not be surprised at all at a Colts victory.

The Day is Finally Here

2010-01-06T06:57:00.001-08:00

I have been anticipating this day for a long time. It is my 1 year blog-o-versary at Home School Dad. Head over there for a celebration.

Today also happens to be the day they announce who is going to Baseball's Hall of Fame via the writer's election process. I have spent the last 7 posts here preparing for today's announcement.

Today I'd like to recap who I would vote for given a ballot, give my predictions for who I think will get in and also some general remarks.

There are many scientific ways to determine who should be in the hall of fame. This year I attempted to develop one of my own. I call it the BILYNM index. What I did was on Christmas Eve took the list of HOF candidates and read them to my BIL Mike. Mike is a writer, a baseball nut (not to be confused with the seasonal 31 flavor's ice cream variety of the same name) and a pretty nice guy.

I asked him to respond yes, no or Maybe to whether the players should be enshrined in Cooperstown. I will admit that I omitted Mike Jackson from the list just because of the double Mike factor.

Here are the results:

Andre Dawson: Y
Bert Blyleven: N
Lee Smith: Y
Jack Morris: M
Tim Raines: N
Mark McGwire: N
Alan Trammell: N
Dave Parker: N
Don Mattingly: N
Harold Baines: N
Roberto Alomar: N
Kevin Appier: N
Ellis Burks: N
Andres Galarraga: N
Pat Hentgen: N
Eric Karros: N
Ray Lankford: N
Barry Larkin: N
Edgar Martinez: N
Fred McGriff: Y
Shane Reynolds: N
David Segui: N
Robin Ventura: N
Todd Zeile: N

Mike's Summation: If Lee Smith doesn't get in, no one should get in.

Speaking of which, the last time that any player on the ballot failed to get the 75% of the vote needed for election was 1996. I think there's a chance that no one will be elected this year.

If I was a 1o year member of the BBWAA I would vote for 7 players this year. Roberto Alomar, Harold Baines, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Lee Smith and Robin Ventura.

I Predict

I think there will be 1 player elected to the Hall this year and I think that player will be Andre Dawson

I think the top 3 vote getters will be Dawson, Roberto Alomar, and Bert Blyleven

Along with Alomar I think 3 other first ballot players are likely to get more than 5% of the vote and stay on for 2011. They are Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, and Edgar Martinez

So this end my build up to the hall of fame announcements. I will be be back today or tomorrow with an HOF recap.

My Official Unofficial Hall of Fame Ballot

2010-01-04T09:56:00.001-08:00

For the past number of posts I have been fixated on the BBWAA election that will be announced this Wednesday. In previous posts I have reviewed the players returning to the ballot and the progress they have made over the years. I have also reviewed the players who are appearing on the ballot for the first time this year. The writers are allowed to vote for as many as 10 players on the ballot. In my last post I began to reveal who I would vote for if I was instructed to vote for 10 players. I ended my post at #8 as if I was given a ballot this year I would only vote for 7 players.

Today I will tell you the 7 players I would vote for if I was given the opportunity.

The 7th on my ballot would be Dale Murphy.

Why I voted for Him: There are several things that set apart Murphy from the other players who I did not vote for. Murphy was a back to back NL MVP winner in 1982, 1983. He was also the heart ans soul of the Braves teams of the 1980's Besides the back to MVPS in 1984 and 1985 he led his team in the following 4 categories: Hits,Homers, Runs Batted In, and Batting Average in 1986 he led the braves in all those categories but homers where he was second. One writer explaining in 2001 why he did not support Murphy's hall of fame bid had to admit his amazing run in the 80's and his other worthy achievements but countered with "I can't recall the last time I said to myself 'I miss seeing Dale Murphy play baseball'" 1

The thing is I do miss seeing Murphy play ball. I remember he played with a style that said he enjoyed playing the game that made me enjoy watching him play.

Why he's not higher on my list: He doesn't really stand head and shoulders above the rest of the possible inductees. Murphy was one of them. He was only listed one time in the top 5 of any offensive statistical category among position players on the ballot and that was a fith place showing in career homers. The MVPs and his 80's dominance did get him on my ballot but his inability to standout statistically in the crowd of challengers keep him entrenched in 7th.

If I was limited to 6 votes I would use the 6th for Lee Smith.

Why I voted for him: There are only 5 relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame (Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter, and Dennis Eckersly) Smith has more than 100 saves than any of them. He had 25 or more saves in every season from 1983 to 1995.

Why he's only 6th: The concept of relievers in the Hall took a little time to grow on me. But the recent inclusions of Eckersly, Sutter and Gossage have convinced me of his hall worthiness that being. Perhaps that previous bias helped me make stronger cases for the players in front of him.

Now is the point of my discourse than I am apt to lose all credibility. But before you put your fingers in your ears and started shouting blahcetera, blahcetera, blahcetera, I urge you to hear me out.

If I had only 5 votes I would use my fifth on Robin Ventura.

Why I voted for Him: Let me be clear. I don't think Robin Ventura belongs in the Hall of Fame. I do believe that he merits some consideration. I have noticed there is a bit of local cooking when it comes to hall of fame voting. Certain players only get votes from the reporters who covered the team he was on. I see that as a trust that the local writer has to opening the eyes of the rest of the media. As someone who is a life long fan of Chicago baseball, I do feel that trust even though mine is just a hypothetical one.

I believe that Robin deserves to be part of the conversation for more than just 1 year. Ventura splayed an excellent 3rd base and deserved each of his 6 gold gloves. A fierce competitor with a keen batting eye (5th in walks among this years hopefuls) and a clutch hitter as attributed by his 18 grand slams which ties him for 3rd all time.

Why I didn't vote for him higher: Putting him ahead of Smith and Murphy who have much brighter hall 0f fame prospects than Ventura was foolhardy enough. I can justify it by saying that if I had only 5 votes I would want Robin in more than the other two. As we get to the final 4 on my ballot, I can't bring myself to score Ventura over any of them.

Before I reveal my top 4 I want to say a bit about the list of 12 statistical categories I have been talking about. I made this chart after I decided who I was going to vote for to see if my voting pattern meshed with the player career numbers. The 12 categories are two Bill James Stats: Hall of Fame Monitor and Hall of Fame Standards and then 10 traditional stats: Games, At Bats, Runs, Hits, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, Walks, Batting Average and Slugging Percentage. I was glad to see that the three of the 4 players I have left to reveal appeared most frequently on those top 5 lists, two 7 times and 1 8 times. I felt that lended a little credibility to my selections.

If I was allowed to vote for 4 players to the Hall of Fame. My 4th vote would be for Roberto Alomar.

Why I voted for him: Alomar seems to me the most Hall of Fame worthy of anyone on the ballot for the first time this year. He had the highest scores of anyone on the ballot in terms of the Hall of Fame Monitor and Hall of Fame Standards metrics. He is second in runs and stolen bases and 3rd in 3 other categories including his career batting average of .300. He was an All Star every year from 1990 to 2001 and won gold glove awards in all but 2 of those seasons.

Why He was not higher: I have Alomar rated ahead of all the other first timers on the ballot. Even though Alomar's accomplishment are stellar it would take an even more special player than him to overtake the 3 returners remaining on my ballot.

If I was told that I only had 3 votes for the Hall of Fame my 3rd vote would be Harold Baines.

Why I voted for Him: While Harold was only listed in the top 5 4 times in the statistical categories referenced above he is on the top of more lists than any other candidate. Baines played more games, got more hits and batted in more runs than anyone else up for consideration this year and He had the second most at bats. Granted those are longevity records and longevity is often dismissed when it comes to the Hall. What can't be dismissed is the quality of effort Baines put out on the field. He was a fan favorite with the White Sox and the Orioles having 3 stints with each team. After his first stint with the White Sox the owner retired his number while he was still playing! Baines missed a game as coach for the White Sox this past year to be honored by the Orioles at a special Harold Baines night.

Why he's not higher: some of the things I said about Edgar Martinez in my last post are true about Harold to a degree. He spent more than 1/2 his career as a Designated Hitter and isn't always one of the first two players you think of in those White Sox teams in the 80's. To be fair though he led the team in both hits and Rbis 4 times between 83-88 and was just 1 RBI behind Ron Kittle from doing it a fifth time. That being said he just doesn't have the numbers to compete with my top two.

If I only had 2 votes for the Hall of Fame my second vote would be for Tim Raines.

Why I voted for Him: If Tim Raines ever makes it to the Hall of Fame which I believe he will, he will have Rickey Henderson to thank for it. In my opinion Hendersons enshrinement last year will force voters to reevaluate Raines who is much like Henderson. Raines had more stolen bases, runs scored and walks than anyone else on the ballot. He appeared on 5 more top 5 lists for a total of 8. Again more than any other player on the ballot.

Why I don't have him higher: Out of respect for the career of who I have # 1.

If there was a rule that you could only vote for 1 player a year for the hall of fame, that player would definitely be Andre Dawson.

Why I have him #1: My best memory of Dawson is in his years with the Cubs in his batting stance with the brick wall behind him at Wrigley field. It is a beautiful memory and to me it resonates baseball. Of all the candidates for the Hall no one is as deserving as Dawson. Of those on the ballot this year he ranked 1st in at bats, second in games and RBI, third in hits and home runs and fourth in stolen bases. I mentioned in phase 1 that Dawson is 1 of 6 players with more than 300 homers and stolen bases. He is one of only 3 players that has 400 + homers and 300 + swiped bags. The other 2 are Willie Mays and Barry Bonds.

So there it is my official unofficial hall of fame ballot. The results of the official balloting will be announced Wednesday. I will check in Wednesday with some final thoughts on the selection process.

If I had to vote for 10

2010-01-02T20:36:00.000-08:00

We are now entering into the third and final phase of my hall of fame prognostication. I am going to tell you what my ballot would look like if I were able to vote in the BBWAA Hall of Fame election. Each voter is allowed to vote for as many as 10 players.

I have decided to list out for you who I would vote for if I had to vote for 10 players and tell you who I would remove if I could only vote for 9 players and downward until I get to who I would vote for if I could only vote for 1 player. Today I will go down as far until I get to the actual amount of people I will be voting for. Monday I will reveal that list in it's entirety.

If I had to vote for 10 players, the last player on my ballot would be Bert Blyleven.

Why he's in the top 10: Frankly because no one on the list who I didn't put higher really screams out to me Hall of Fame. For some reason I just can't fall in love with Jack Morris. I was thinking about Alan Trammell and after doing some stat comparison could not bring myself to vote for Him. I compared the 19 position players in 12 categories and Trammell was 1 of only 4 players did not finish in the top 5 in any of them.

Blyleven is also in my top 10 because he has the bonafides to be there. Blyleven has 3,701 strikeout 5th all time, 3rd of anyone who'e ever been on a BBWAA ballot. Of the top 10 strikeout leaders who have ever been on a BBWAA ballot, only blyleven has not been voted into the Hall. Blyleven's 60 shutouts is good enough for 9th on the all time list. Not only is everyone ahead of him in the hall, he is the only one not in the top 20 not to make it.

Why he's not any higher: For some reason Bert Blyleven does not feel like a hall-0f-famer to me despite the stats. One stat that may be dragging him down is wins. Blyleven is 27th all time in wins of all those only 2 players who have been elgible for election with more wins than Blyleven have made it to the hall. The problem is that Blyleven and those other 2 pitchers are the only ones who have less than 300 wins. One of those pitchers Tommy John, who at least to me, does feel like a hall-of famer failed to be elected on his 15th and final ballot last year. John had 1 more win than blyleven 21 point better winning percentage and only 3 hundreths higher earened runned average. The fact that the last starting pitcher to make the Hall was Nolan Ryan in 1999 doesn't help either. While it's unfair to hold him up to Ryan's standard, I think it's fair to hold him up to John's and since John didn't get in I'm not voting Blyleven there either.

If I had 9 votes my 9th vote would be for Edgar Martinez.

Why he's in the top 9: A .312 lifetime batting average with 10 seasons over .300. 2 consecutive AL batting titles doesn't hurt either. Many will begrudge him the hall because he was basically a career DH. I don't think that's fair. Now that we are finally letting relievers in the Hall, it's time we start giving DH's their due as well.

Why he's not higher: That being said, I am not quite sure he is quite HOF material. He spent most of his career as the second or third best hitter. Some years he wasn't even the best Martinez.

If I had 8 votes, my 8th vote would be for Fred McGriff.

Why he's in the top 8. First of all, he has a HOF nickname. I mean the Crime Dog rocks! Second, McGriff was a clutch performer the fact that his playoff batting average and slugging percentage over 10 series are both approximately 20 points higher than his career #s. This is especially awesome, considering he has a .509 life time slugging percentage.

From 1995 to 1997 I lived near enough Atlanta, Georgia that I became a daily follower of the Atlanta Braves. It was there that I realized how great a player the Crime Dog really was. Statistically, these weren't his best years but they were still very impressive.

Why he's not higher: Many people make a case about whether a player should be a first ballot hall of famer or not. To me this makes no sense. If you think someone is good enough for the hall you should vote that way immediately. If you think someone is good enough for the hall you should vote that way immediately. But sometimes it is possible to think a guy as just shy of the Hall and in the years to come reshape your opinion of them. Then i believe it is fair to not cast a vote early only to add it in the years to come. For that reason, even though McGriff is 8th if I had to vote for 8, I would not now choose him for the Hall. I would actually vote for 7 on this years ballot and will reveal those 7 Monday.

Here is why the Crime Dog is on the outside looking in. Many would say that his 7 home runs shy of the 500 mark hurt his chances. To me banging on the door of the 2500/500 club with a lifetime slugging percentage higher than .500 enhances his chances doesn't hurt them. If he stayed in the bigs long enough to get those 7 dingers he would have surely collected the 10 hits needed for 2,500 in the process. My deal is I don't want to be some "everybody gets in Flynn" with my voting even though mine are only hypothetical. At 7 votes I already think I may be pushing the envelope this year. Something just cries out to be that McGriff had just below the career needed for the Hall of Fame. It's nothing I find lacking in his resume as much as this lingering feeling I get that maybe the Hall is not something that Freddy should take a bite out of.

Future Hall of Fame Posts:

Monday: I will list my 7 votes for the Hall
Wednesday: I will have some final thoughts on the process including who I think will be elected this year.
After the voting is revealed: A briefing on the results and how my choices fared

Hall of Fame Part 5

2010-01-02T09:19:00.000-08:00

I am finishing up Phase 2 of my series on the 2010 hall of fame vote. In my last post, I introduced 8 of the 15 players on the writers ballot for the first time this year. I will address the last 7 today. In my next post I will tell you who I would vote for if given the chance.

Barry Larkin SS played 19 seasons for the Cincinnati Reds. Over 2300 hits 2 shy of 200 homers and a lifetime batting average of .295 and over 350 stolen bases. A 12 time All Star, with 3 Golden Gloves and 9 Silver Sluggers, Larkin was the 1995 National League MVP.

Edgar Martinez DH played 18 seasons for the Seattle Mariners. Over 2200 hits, 9 above the 300 HR mark and a career batting average of .312. Martinez was selected to 7 all star games, and won 5 silver slugger awards. Best MVP voting = 3rd.

Fred McGriff 1B played for 6 teams (Rays, Braves, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers) over 19 seasons. McGrifff posted a lifetime batting average of .284 with 10 shy of 2,500 hits and missing the 500 homer mark by 7. A 5 time all star with 1 all star MVP award and 3 Silver Sluggers. Best MVP Voting = 4th.

Shane Reynolds P played for 3 teams (Astros, Diamond Backs, Braves) over 13 seasons. Career ERA of 4.09 with 114 wins and 1403 strikeouts. 1 All Star game, Best Cy Young Voting = 9th.

David Segui 1B played for 7 teams (Orioles, Expos, Mets, Mariners, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays) over 15 seasons. A career .292 hitter with 1412 hits and 139 homers.

Robin Ventura 3B played for 4 teams (White Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees) over 16 seasons. Finished career just 15 hits away from 1900 and 6 dingers shy of 300. Lifetime batting average of .267. 2 All Star appearances and 6 Gold Gloves. Best MVP Voting = 6th.

Todd Zeile 3B played for 11 teams (Cardinals, Mets, Rangers, Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies, Expos, Cubs, Yankees, Marlins, Orioles) over 16 seasons. A .265 Major League batting average with 4 over the 2000 hit threshold and 3 more than 250 homers.

Hall of Fame Part 4

2010-01-01T01:17:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year!

I promise this blog will not always be this baseball intensive. Especially in the winter. But if this blog is still kicking a year from now, I expect you will see a few weeks of Hall of Fame analysis and prognostication.

Today we enter into phase 2 of our look at the 2010 road to Cooperstown.

Phase 1 was to review the accomplishments and the writers voting patterns of the 11 players returning to the ballot from last year. Phase 2 is to review the accomplishments of the 15 players on the ballot for the first time.

Analysis of previous 5 Hall of Fame nominee classes.

In the past 5 years there have been 62 players to find their way on the ballot for the first time. Of those 62, 4 have been elected to the hall on their first opportunity. 6 received more than 5% of the vote but less than the 75% needed for enshrinement. 1/2 of those 6 received less than 5% of the vote in their second year and the other half are still on the ballot for this year. Forty of the 62 players received under 5% of the vote but at least one vote. The remaining 12 players did not receive any votes at all.

If we assume that the 15 players on the ballot for the first time this year will fare in the same pattern as the last 5 years then ...

1 player will be elected to the hall on their first ballot. 1 player will receive more than 5% but less than 75% of the vote and will have a 50/50 shot of being voted off the island in the next election. 10 players will receive at least 1 vote but not enough consideration to return to the ballot next year. 3 players will receive no votes whatsoever.

I'll let you all know on the 6th if the votes followed the pattern or not. Here are the first 8 first time candidate profiles. I'll finish the rest in the next HOF installment.

Roberto Alomar 2B played for 7 teams (Padres, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Mets, White Sox, Diamond Backs) over 17 seasons. Lifetime .300 batting average. More than 2700 hits. More than 200 home runs. Within 25 of the 500 steal mark. 12 All Star appearances. 1 All Star MVP. 10 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers and 1 alcs MVP. Best MVP voting = 3rd

Kevin Appier P played for 4 teams (Royals, A's, Mets, Angels) over 16 seasons. Won 169 games with lifetime era of 3.74. 6 strikeouts shy of 2000. 1 all star game. Best Cy Young Voting =3rd.

Ellis Burks OF played with 5 teams (Red Sox, Rockies, Giants, Indians, White Sox) over 18 seasons. Life time .291 hitter with over 2100 hits, more than 350 homers and less than 20 steals from the 200 mark. 2 All Star Games, 1 Gold Glove, 2 Silver Sluggers. Best MVP voting =3rd

Andres Galarraga 1B played for 7 teams (Expos, Cardinals, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Giants, Angels) over 19 seasons. With More than 2300 hits and 1 homer shy of the 400 mark Galaragga hit .288 with 128 stolen bases. Played in 5 all star games, won two gold gloves and two silver sluggers. Best MVP voting 6th (twice).

Pat Hentgen P played for 3 teams (Blue Jays, Cardinals, Orioles)over 14 seasons. Hentgen had 131 career wins, a lifetime era of 4.32 and 1,290 strike outs. 3 All Star appearance winner of the AL Cy Young award in 1996.

Mike Jackson P played for 8 teams (Mariners, Giants, Indians, Phillies, Twins, Reds, Astros, White Sox) over 17 seasons. 3.42 ERA 142 Saves and 1006 Strikeouts. Best MVP voting = 21st.

Eric Karros 1B played for 3 teams (Dodgers A's Cubs) over 14 seasons. A life time .268 hitter Karros ended his career with over 1700 hits and 284 homers. Won the 1992 NL rookie of the year award, 1 Silver Slugger Best MVP Voting Award = 5th.

Ray Lankford OF played for 2 teams (Cardinals, Padres) over 14 seasons. More than 1500 hits with a life time batting average of .272. Hit over 200 homers while swiping over 200 bags. 1 all star game, best MVP voting = 16th.

Hall of Fame Part 3

2009-12-29T21:37:00.000-08:00

This is the third installment in my series of posts previewing the candidates for enshrinement in baseballs hall of fame. To read installment one or two click as needed.

Today I will finish previewing those returning to the ballot this year. Again I will not be stating my preferences for induction until the final post.

Continuing with those returning to the ballot, we start with Harold Baines who is on the ballot for the 4th year. Baines began and finished his MLB career with the Chicago White Sox. He actually played for the pale hose on 3 different occasions (80-89, 96-97, 2000-2001) In between he played with the Texas Rangers, (89,90) 3 stints with the Baltimore Orioles (93-95, 97-99, 2000), Oakland A's (90-92), and the Cleveland Indians in 1999. Baines approached the 3000 hit mark late in his career but finished well under with 2,866 hit 384 homers and had a life time batting average of .289. Baines, a six time all star (85,86,87,89,91, and 99) spent most of the 1980's as an outfielder and spent the 2nd half his career as a DH.

Baines first appeared on the ballot in 2007 appearing on 5.3% of the completed ballots. He had 5.2 % in 2008 and 5.9 % last year.

Analysis and Outlook: With 12 elections remaining, it is much too early to write Baines off entirely. However, just a small decrease in his support over the past 3 years would remove him from the ballot altogether.

Mark McGwire is on his 4th year on the ballot. I would generally tell you what teams he played for and the statistics he compiled over his career, but as McGwire infamously once noted I am not here to talk about the past.

Actually I am here to talk about the past so I will tell you that McGwire played for the Oakland A's form 1986 to 1997 and played for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1997 to 2001. He hit 583 home runs and once held the single season home run record at 70. The first baseman had 1626 career hits with a lifetime batting average of .263. McGwire was the 1987 Rookie of the year, won a gold glove in 1990, silver slugger awards in 92,96,and 98. The 12 time all star (87-92 and 95-2000) was the runner-up for the NL MVP in 1998.

McGwire entered the hall of fame ballot in 2007 with 23.5% of the vote, had 23.6% in 2008 and appeared on 21.6 % of the completed ballots last year.

Anaylisis and Outlook: With career numbers alone McGwire would probably already be in the hall or be at least 30 - 40 more percentage points closer. Allegations and speculation about steroid use and his aforementioned inability to talk about the past has radically cut off his support. I don't expect his numbers to improve anytime soon.

Tim Raines is on the ballot for his 3rd year. He played for the Montreal Expos (1979-1990 and 2001) Chicago White Sox (1991-1995) New York Yankees (1996-1998), Oakland A's (2000), Baltimore Orioles (2001) and finished up with the Florida Marlins in 2002. Raines had 2605 hits, 808 stolen bases and a lifetime batting average of .294. Raines played in seven straight all star games (1981-1987 and was the 1987 all star MVP. He won a Silver Slugger award in 1986 the year he led the National League with a .334 batting average.

Raines first year on the ballot was 2008 when he received 24.3 % of the vote. Last year he was down to 22.6%.

Analysis and Outlook: Receiving over 20% of the vote on your first two ballots is a pretty good way to start your bid for hall of fame induction. The fact that his numbers took a small dip from his first to second year on the ballot could be a little troubling if the pattern continues downward. I think it's more likely that this was a small course correction that happens to most players in the election process. I also feel that Rickey Henderson's election on the first ballot last year lowered his vote total last year but ultimatelt will increase his chances in the years to come as he is such a similar player to Henderson.

Hall of Fame Part 2

2009-12-28T14:09:00.000-08:00

This is the second installment in my series on the 2010 BBWWA hall of fame election. There are 3 different phases in this series. Phase 1 is the analysis of returning players to the ballot. This is the second post in phase 1. I will continue to review these players in descending order based on their years in the ballot. Click here to see my analysis of Dave Parker, Bert Blyleven, Dale Murphy and Jack Morris. I also want to reiterate that my analysis is based on previous voting patterns and not my view on the individuals hall of fame worthiness. I will be discussing those points in phase 3.

Don Mattingly is on his 10th year of the ballot. Mattingly played his entire career (1982-1995) as a first baseman for the New York Yankees. In Mattingly's 14 seasons for the Bronx Bombers he hit 222 home runs, maintained a lifetime average of .307 and had 2153 career hits. Mattingly made 6 all star teams, won 9 gold glove awards (85-89 + 91-94) and 3 consecutive silver slugger awards (85-87). He was the American League MVP in 1985 and the runner-up in 1986.

Mattingly has been on the ballot since 2001 garnering 28.2 % of the vote that year. 2001 was also the year he received the most support. He has only been on 20% or more of the ballots twice (the other year being 2002). He has actually lost 1 percentage point of support in the past 5 years (12.8 in 2004 and 11.9 in 2009).

Anaylysis and Outlook. Mattingly's 28.2% in 2001 would have made a good point to build on, instead his % decreases for a few years then increase for a few and then goes back down Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven both had less votes than Mattingly did in 2001 but by 2009 Blyleven had 5 times the votes Mattingly had and Morris had almost 4 times more. With 6 elections left Mattingly's only legitimate chance of being voted in by the BBWAA is by increasing his support about 10 percentage points each year and given his up and down history that does not seem likely.

Andre Dawson is on the ballot for his 9nth year. Dawson played for the Montreal Expos form 1976 to 1986. He played foe the Chicago Cubs from 1987 to 1992. He played 2 years for the Boston Red Sox in 1993 and 1994 and finished his career with the Florida Marlins in 1995 and 1996. Dawson was a lifetime outfielder save his 2 years in the American league where he was a designated hitter. Dawson had a career batting average of .279 and had 2774 hits. He is one of only 6 players to have over 300 home runs (438) and 300 stolen bases (314). Dawson won 6 consecutive gold gloves with the expos (1981-1985) and 2 more with the Cubs (1987-1988). He made 3 consecutive all star teams with Montreal (1981-1983) and 5 consecutive with Chicago (1987-1991). Dawson was good at making a first impression as he won the N.L. Rookie if the year award with the Expos in 1977 and won the NL MVP in 1987 his first year with the Cubs.

Dawson has been on the ballot since 2002 where he received 45.3% of the vote. He was voted for by 50% of the electorate in 2003 and again in 2004. He has received more than 65% support in the last 2 elections receiving his highest total last year with 67% of the vote.

Analysis and Outlook: Dawson previous 8 years on the ballot read like a textbook on how to make the hall. He has increased his % in every year but 2 maintaining 50% in 2004 and going from 61% in 2006 to 56.6 in 2007. With 7 more elections left to him he should easily make the 75% he needs. Also very promising is that everyone who had more votes than him in any of his previous elections has already made the Hall.

Alan Trammell is on the ballot for the ninth year. He played his entire career for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1996. While he played occasional other positions for the Tigers including DH, He predominately played shortstop and did so each season he was in the major leagues. Trammell was a 6 time all star (80, 84,85,87,88, & 90), 4 time gold glove recipient, (80,81,83 and 84), 3 time Silver Slugger winner (87,88 &90) and the 1984 World Series MVP. In 1987 He was runner up for the AL MVP award. Alan hit .285 for the Tigers with 2365 hits and 185 Home Runs.

Like Dawson, Trammel has been on the ballot since 2002. Unlike Dawson, Trammell has never even come close to the 75% needed for election. He was on 15.7% of the ballots in his first year of eligibility, Hit a high water mark of 18.2% in 2008 and was down to 17.4% in last years balloting.

Analysis and outlook: In his 8 past elections Trammels support has been consistently in the teens. This seems to mean that there is no wide spread appeal for putting Trammell into the Hall.

Lee Smith the lone returning relief pitcher is on his 8th year on the ballot. Smith pitched from 1980 to 1997. Beginning with the Chicago Cubs (1980-1987), then playing 2 and a half seasons with the Boston Red Sox (88-90), parts of 4 seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals (90-93). His later years he played on the New York Yankees (93), Baltimore Orioles (94). California Angels (95,96), Cincinnati Reds (96), and Montreal Expos 1997. He had a lifetime ERA of 3.03, 1,251 strike outs and 478 saves. Smith was chosen for 7 all star games (83,87,91-95). He was second in Cy Young voting in 1991 the year he won the first of his 2 consecutive NL Rolaids Relief awards for the Cardinals. He won the AL version of the award in 94 with the Orioles.

Smith has been on the ballot in 2003 when he received 42.3% of the vote. He dropped down to 36.6% of the vote in 2004 and in the last 5 years has seen that percentage rise to 44.5% in the last election.

Analysis and Outlook: Smith's initial vote count and his current standing bode well for eventual enshrinement when viewed separately. Looking at them together makes one wonder why he has only moved up 2 percentage points in 7 elections. If whatever has been keeping him stuck in the 40's resolves himself there is plenty of time for Smith to get to Cooperstown.

Hall of Fame Part 1

2009-12-27T16:51:00.000-08:00

January 6th, 2010 is an important day for me. It is the 1 year blog-o-versary of Home School Dad (HSD), my main blog. I will be commemorating it there accordingly.

January 6th also has importance as it is the day that the Baseball hall of fame voting is revealed to the general public.

The Baseball writers Association of America (BBWAA) can vote for up to 10 former players to be inducted into the hall in July of 2010. If a player gets 75% of the writers vote they make the hall. If they get less than 75% but more than 5% of the vote they can return to the next years ballot. Players will be on the ballot for 15 years until they receive more than 75% or less than 5 percent of the vote.

Over my next several posts I will introduce you to the players returning to this years ballot, those on the ballot for the first time, and in my final post I will reveal how I would have voted if given the opportunity.

Phase 1: Returning Players (In descending order of years on ballot). The analysis will be based on previous voting patterns not my assessment of their HOF worthiness. That piece of the puzzle will come in the last installment.

Dave Parker is on the ballot for his 14th year . Parker played for 19 seasons beginning with the Pittsburgh Pirates (1973-1983) and ending his career with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1991. In between je played for the Cincinnati Reds (1984-1987), Oakland A's 1988-1989, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, and California Angels (1991).

When Parkers playing days came to a close he had amassed 2712 total hits, 339 homers and a lifetime batting average of .290. He played outfield for his most of career where he won 3 consecutive gold gloves (77-79) and was DH the majority of his last 4 seasons. Parker was the 1978 NL MVP, runner up in 1985, a 7 time all star and the all star MVP in 1979.

Parker has been on the ballot since 1997 his best year came in 1998 when he received 24.5 % of the vote. In 2004 Parker had 10.9% of the vote in 2004 and was up to 15% in last years balloting.

Analysis : Players on the 14th ballot who eventually make the Hall in the BBWWA process generally are increasing in % of votes year after year and closing in on the 75% mark. Jim Rice, For an example who was voted in in his 15th year last year received 64.8 % in his 12th election, 71.2% in his 13th, 72.2% in his penultimate election and received 76.4 % when he entered the Hall. Rice's low water mark of 29.4 % in his 5th election is 5 percentage points better than Parker did in his best year.

Outlook: Parker doesn't appear to have enough time to mount a surge of votes needed for induction.

Bert Blyleven is on the ballot for his 13th year. Blyleven began his career pitching for the Minnesota Twins (1970-1976), spent a season and a half with the Texas Rangers (76-77), 3 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates (78-80) 4 and a half years with the Cleveland Indians followed by a return trip to Minnesota (1985-1988) and ended his playing days with the California Angels (89-92). Blyleven retired with a lifetime era of 3.31, 3701 strikeouts and 13 wins shy of the 300 mark.

While Blyleven helped 2 teams win the World Series (Pittsburgh 79 and Minnesota 1987) with a combined 2-1 record and 2.35 ERA his trophy cabinet does seem to be shy of personal accolades. He had no gold gloves, only 2 all star appearances and never finished higher than 3rd in Cy Young voting.

Blyleven has been on the HOF ballot since 1998 when like Parker he received 17.5% in his first opportunity. Last year was his best showing as he received 62.7% of the vote. He has gained almost 30 percentage points in the last 5 years (Blyleven received 35.4 % in 2004).

Analysis and outlook: Looking again at Rice for comparison we find that Blyleven 62.7% last year in his 12 election is comparable to Rice 64.8% at the same time in the process. Combined with the fact that some writers only vote for 1 to 3 candidates each year, Blyleven has an excellent chance of making the HOF in the next 3 years.

Dale Murphy on the ballot for the 12th year played the majority of his career with the Atlanta Braves (1976-1990). He played 2 and a half seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies (1990-1992) and played in 26 games with the Colorado Rockies in 1993. Murphy held a lifetime batting average of .265, had 2,111 hits and 398 home runs.

Murphy started as a catcher with the braves but played the majority of his games in the outfield. He was elected to 7 all star games, received 5 consecutive gold glove awards (82-86) 4 consecutive silver slugger awards (82-85) and 2 consecutive MVP seasons (82+83).

Murphy received 19.3% of the vote in 1999, his first year on the ballot. His high water mark was in 2000 where he received 20.8%. In 2004 he reached his low mark only appearing on 8.5 % of the ballots. He has gained 3% points between the election of 2004 and 2009.

Analysis and outlook: A serious HOF contender on his 12th ballot would be dramatically better positioned than Mr. Murphy. While his overall prospects are not as bleak as Parkers, nothing short of a meteoric rise in votes in his last 4 seasons of BBWWA eligibility will get him to the 50% mark let alone the 75% needed to make it in the hall.

Jack Morris is on the ballot for the eleventh year. Morris pitched for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1990, the Minnesota Twins in 1991, the Toronto Blue Jays in 1992 & 1993 and finished his career with the Cleveland Indians in 1994. Morris finished with an era of .390, 2,478 strikeouts and 254 wins.

Morris won World Series championships with 3 teams (Detroit 84, Minnesota 91 and Toronto 92) He had a 4-2 World Series and a 2.96 ERA. His individual trophy case is as barren as Bylevens with the exception of the 1991 World Series MVP and 5 all star appearances as compared to Bert's 2.

Morris has been on the HOF ballot since 2000 when he appeared on 22.2 % of the ballots. His best year was last year when he received 44% support an increase of almost 18 percentage points since 2004.

Analysis: With 5 years left on the ballot Morris is in a preferable yet precarious position. Morris is only 2 points behind where Blyleven prior to his eleventh election. Blyleven was able to increase 14 percentage points that year to get to his present favorable position. If Morris doesn't have a double digit surge in one or two of the next few elections he is apt to be on the outside looking in 5 years from now when his 15 years are up.

That's enough analysis for one day. I'll be back today or tomorrow to look at 4 more players returning to the ballot this year.

A Great Drum

2009-12-23T14:55:00.000-08:00

Hockey Lessons
Life Lessons from the 1980 U.S. Olympic Hockey Team

This is the first post that I am publishing in it's entirety on both my blogs. The idea speaks to me on both a sports and home school level.

Mark Pavelich was one of the three young men who played on the "conehead" line for Herb Brook's gold medal winning hockey team. Named the cone head line because of the unique perhaps alien style the boys played with as an homage to the popular conehead sketch on Saturday Night Live at that time.

The book "The Boy's of Winter" does an excellent job portraying Pavelich as someone who loves playing Hockey but not the notoriety that comes with excelling. Pavelich is one of 2 NHL players to score 5 goals in a game. 1

That fact notwithstanding, Pavelich was much more comfortable getting the puck to other scores than scoring himself. Most familiar with the Miracle on Ice are familiar with Mike Eurizione's game winning goal. It was Pavelich who got the assist. Pavelich also got the assist on his line mate Buzz Schneider's first period goal that knotted the Russians at one. How appropriate that a player who liked being behind the scenes made the first and final assists in the most important hockey game in his countries history.

As a NHL player Pavelich was known for his poise on the ice, his practical jokes in the locker room and his desire to be and completely comfortable in who he was as a person. Who he was off the ice was not a social butterfly or a clotheshorse. There are countless stories in "Boys of Winter." showing Pavelich's preference to be withdrawn and only comfortable outside of the rink when He was fishing, hunting or other outddorsy tasks. His New York Rangers teammate Nick Foitu described him thusly, "He dressed like a mountain man from the backwoods of Minnesota. Then he would come out on the ice and play his heart out." 2

Joe Devaney a close friend of Pavelich's summed him up this way . . . "He's completely happy and content with what he does. He marches to his own drum and it's a great drum." 3

I really liked that quote because it makes an important distinction for going against the status quo. Some people march to a different drum just to be contrarian. When they hear toe-may-toe they have a knee-jerk need to say toe-mah-toe. Unfortunately, being different just to be different doesn't usually make a difference.

Amy and I march to a different drummer when it comes to educating our kids. We home school our children and we don't do it to be different. We do it because, for us, homeschooling is a great drum. Like Pavelich, we are happy and content with our decision to homeschool.

As a parent I also see the quote about Pavelich as an opportunity to help my children find their drummer. All our children seem to be on their way to establishing their own paths. Emma, the literary giant and animal lover. Charlie, the scientist, explorer, super hero. Lucy, the 1 man wrecking crew/ballerina with an unusual take on about everything. I recently told her that over Christmas Break I wanted her to memorize three state capitols. I suggested Indiana, Iowa and Missouri as they border Illinois. She responded back that she wanted to memorize the capitols of Kentucky, Bethlehem and Arkansas.

As Amy and I help them find their drummer we realize it doesn't have to be the road less traveled, we just want the path they take to be a great drum.

1. Wikpedia article on Pavelich
2. The Boys of Winter. Coffey, Wayne. p. 167
3. Boys of Winter, P. 169

Happy Anniversary Bobby Jenks

2009-12-17T18:34:00.000-08:00

It's Christmas time and everyone seems to be on the hunt for bargains. For Baseball general managers one place to look for bargains is the waiver wire.

This time of year baseball teams are shuffling their rosters around and will often cut a player lose as part of a numbers game. In December 2004, The LA Angels of Anaheim decided to cut Bobby Jenks a highly regarded pitching prospect. In 4 years in the minors Big Bobby had compiled a lot of excess baggage including elbow trouble, erratic behavior and accusations of racism. 1

Enter White Sox GM who on this day in 2004 took a chance on the 100 MPH as a reclamation project. The White Sox decided to shift him from a starter to a role in the bullpen. Jenks came up mid season for the Sox in 2005 and won the role of closer late in the year due to injuries to Dustin Hermanson who was also acquired in December of 2004. Jenks saved 6 games for the Sox in'05 in the regular season and 4 more in the playoffs including the first and last games of the World Series. So in ten months time Jenks had been transformed from the baseball scrap heap to a World Series hero.

Alas, not every waiver wire pick-up has such fantastic upside. But on the 5 year anniversary of the Jenks acquisition, I am still glad that this one did.

Footnotes:

1. Baseball Reference.com - Bobby Jenks Article

World Champs anniversary edition

2009-12-13T19:23:00.000-08:00

When I started this blog did I mention who my favorite sports team of all time is?

Here's a clue . . .

Yes, I love the Chicago White Sox. I am not the typical White Sox fan, but if you read my blog long enough, you will discover I am not the typical anything.

I will delve into what separates me from the normal White Sox fan in later posts. At this time, I'd like to start (with apologies to Kool and The Gang) a celebration that will last throughout the year. The celebration the 5 year anniversary of the 2005 World Series Championship Season.

I know that it is actually only 2009 and might seem premature for the 5 year anniversary. However, I plan from now until October to commemorate important events in the chronology of that histroric achievement.

Today, December 13th, for example, commemorates a move made 5 years ago that went a long way to making the White Sox champions. On this date in 2004 White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams traded Carlos Lee to the Milwaukee Brewers for Scott Podsednik.

In 2004 the white Sox were a team that "lived and died by the home run and the big inning." 1

No one hit more home runs than the White Sox in the regular season of 2004 but that was not enough to get them to the post season. So changes needed to be made to play the style of baseball first year manager Ozzie Guillen was most accustomed to.

The big change was to essentially outfielders with the Brewers. Carlos "El Caballo" Lee hit .305 for the White Sox in '04 and hit 31 dingers, second only to Paul Konerko. Podesdnik cracked 12 homers for the brew crew that year but batted only .244. Podsednik's real contribution came on the base paths where he stole 70 bases, whereas The White Sox as a unit only stole 77!!!

The trade worked out well for both parties. Lee increased his homer output as a Brewer and made the first of 3 consecutive all star appearances in 2005. But the Sox were the real winner of the trade. The acquisition of Podsednik transformed the team. They now had a base runner who was a threat to steal every time he got on base. He stole 59 in 2005 in only 129 games. It's hard to imagine what his total might have been if injuries in the second half of the season didn't keep him out of so many games.

Let me quickly tell you how some of the cogs in the 2005 championship wheel were attained.

June 27th 2004. White Sox move Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and Michael Morse to Seattle for Freddy Garcia and Ben Davis. Garcia became a key starter in the White Sox rotation.
July 18, 2004. Sox trade pitchers Jon Rauch and Gary Majewski to Montreal for Carl Everett. Everett became the DH in 2005 when Frank Thomas went down to injury.
July 31, 2004. White Sox move fan favorite Esteban Loaiza to the Yankees for Jose Contreras. Contreras went 9-2 in the second half of 2005. His best effort came on September 23rd against the Twins. The Sox had dropped to only 1 and a half games ahead of the Indians. Contreras pitched a 9 strike out complete game gem and the White Sox never looked back. Man, I couldn't think of a way to work in that I was at the game and that it was my birthday. Oh well, maybe you will figure that out on your own.

Trades weren't the only way this team formed. Earlier in December of 2004, Wiilliams made two key free agent signings:

December 8th Pitcher Dustin Hermanson
December 9th Outfielder Jermaine Dye

Hermanson stepped into the closer role in 2005 when we learned that Shingo Takatsu is Japanese for 1 year wonder.

Dye had an excellent year in '05 with the Sox, culminating with his World Series MVP award.

So there it is my first of several looks back at the 2005 World Champions. In the weeks to come I will intersperse some more memories but will also be focusing on other teams and other sports.

Until next time, this is Crazy Uncle Dave signing off.

This post is featured in Athletic Alley Blog Carnival – December 17, 2009

Footnotes

1. Total White Sox by Richard C Lindberg. Triumph Books, 2006. P. 121

Hello Sports Fans

2009-12-11T23:02:00.000-08:00

There's a new blog in town!

I have been blogging for almost a year at my main blog: Home School Dad. Like me, my blog is eclectic. I blog about a great variety of topics. For whatever reason, I have not posted a lot about sports.

This is not because I don't have a lot to say about sports. No, I have plenty to say! I am constantly having sports discussions in my head that are begging to get out. Perhaps Home School Dad is not just the correct springboard for my sports diatribes, discourses, and delusions.

At this time I am happy to introduce Crazy Uncle Dave's Sport-O-Rama. I am not sure exactly what this blog will look like in the next few weeks and month. There will be a little bit of a getting to know you phase. But let me remind you that it took Home School Dad a few months to feel it's way through the blog-o-sphere.

Speaking of which, HSD is not going anywhere. It will be my main blog, and I don't intend as much time and energy here. But when I have a thought or comment or concern within the realm of organized or even disorganized sports I'll talk about it here. I will also be putting the first paragraph or so of each sports-o-rama post over at HSD with a link to the entire article.

For those of you visiting from Six Word Saturday. Welcome! Click here to see what other six words are in play this weekend.