Sunday, January 18, 2015

2015 HOF Postview

Earlier this month,  I posted about the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.  I try to follow the same format  each year, although some years I string the format along over several posts.  The format goes like this,  I list those who remain on the ballot from previous years along with how long they have been on the ballot. This year I also mentioned the rule change that changed the amount of years for players on the ballot after 2005 from 15 to 10.  Those  still on the ballot  from 2001 to 2015 get  grandfathered in for 15 years. I then introduce the players on the ballot for the first time.  After that,  I list in reverse order who I would elect to the Hall of Fame if given  exactly 10 votes to do so.  I also reveal how many players would be on my official ballot (This year it was 8).  To end up the post, I always predict (without having looked at any leaked ballots) who I think the writers will select that year.  Here is what I said this year: 

Here is what I think Will happen

4 of the following 5 players  will be inducted this summer:

Randy Johnson
Craig Biggio
John Smoltz
Jeff Bagwell
and
Pedro Martinez

Pedro and Johnson being mortal locks,  and either Smoltzy or Bagwell being the odd man out.  My money says Bagwell won't make it, this time.
Well the announcement was made on January 6th and I was 100 percent right.
Here is a quick review of the election results:
Winners

Randy Johnson received 97.3% of the vote in his first year on the ballot.





Pedro Martinez received 91.1% of the vote in his first year on the ballot.



John Smoltz received  82.9% of the vote in his first year on the ballot. 


Craig Biggio received 82.7% of the vote in his third year on the ballot.  
Biggio missed induction in 2014 by 2 votes 

Waiters
Players with 3 or fewer elections remaining are listed in red
* indicates this years percentage of vote highest received while on ballot.
Mike Piazza 3rd year on ballot received 69.9 % of vote*
Jeff Bagwell 5th year on ballot, received 55.7% of vote*
Tim Raines 8th  year on ballot, received 55% of vote*
Curt Schilling 3rd year on ballot,  received 39.2% of vote*
Roger Clemens 3rd year on ballot, received 37.5% of vote.
Barry Bonds 3rd year on ballot, received 36.8% of vote*
Lee Smith 13th year on ballot, received 30.2% of vote.
Edgar Martinez 6th year on ballot, received 27% of vote.
Alan Trammell 14th year on ballot, received 25.1% of  vote.
Mike Mussina 2nd year on ballot, received 24.6% of  vote*
Jeff Kent 2nd year on ballot, received 14% of vote.
Fred McGriff 6th year on ballot, received 12.9% of vote.
Larry Walker 5th year on ballot, received 11.8 % of vote.
Gary Sheffield 1st year on ballot, received 11.7% of vote.
Mark McGwire, 9th year on ballot received 10% of vote.
Sammy Sosa, 3rd year on ballot, recived 6.6% of vote.
Nomar Garciapara, 1st year on ballot, received 5.5% of vote



Off the ballot - Time elapsed

Don Mattingly failed to receive 75% of the vote in his 15th and final year on the ballot.  Mattingly's  highest %  28.2, came in 2001 on his 1st year on the ballot.  Mattingly spent his entire career 1982 to 1995 for the New York Yankees.  Mattingly was a 6 time all star, the 1985 American League MVP and in the top 5 of MVP vote receivers from 1984 to 1986.  He won 9 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers.

Off the ballot - 1st year on ballot , received some votes, but less than 5 percent. 

Carlos Delgado 21 votes (3.8%)
Troy Percival 4 votes (.7%)
Aaron Boone 2 votes (.4%)
Tom Gordon 2 votes (.4%)
Darin Erstad 1 vote (.2%)

Off the ballot, - 1st year on ballot, received no votes

Cliff Floyd, Tony Clark, Brian Giles, Rich Aurilla, Eddie Guardado, Jason Schmidt, Jermaine Dye



 2016 Hall of Fame ballot preview 


Like this year, there will be 17 players returning to the ballot. 15 of those players will be on the ballot for at least  the third time.   2 players, Mark McGwire and Alan Trammell, will be in their final year  of consideration.   McGwire in his 10th year and Trammell in his 15th.  Newcomers to the 2016 ballot will include: Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman, GarretAnderson, Jason Kendall and Jim Edmonds.

Closing the book on 2000

2015 was the first year no players from the 2000 Hall of Fame ballot were remaining on the current ballot. There were30 players on the 2000 ballot, 16 returning from previous years, and 14 on the ballot for the first time. Carlton Fisk and Tony Perez were elected into the Hall of Fame in 2000. Jim Rice, Gary Carter, Bruce Sutter, Rich Gossage, and Bert Blyleven were all voted to the Hall of Fame in subsequent elections.  

No players aged out of the ballot in 2000.   Nine returning players, who received more than 5% of the vote in 2000, failed to get elected to the Hall of Fame in their  remaining time on the ballot.  These were Luis Tiant, Jim Kaat, Steve Garvey, Dave Concepcion, Ron Guidry, Tommy John, Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, and Dale Murphy.  One returning player, Bob Boone, failed to receive the 5% needed to stay on the ballot.

Of those on the ballot for the first time in 2000, only 2 (Gossage and Jack Morris) managed to get more than 5% of the vote. Morris stayed on the ballot for 15 years and received over 50% of the vote from 2010  to 2014 and aged out last year. Players who were on the ballot for the first time in 2000 and received some votes were: Jeff Reardon, Willie Wilson, Rick Sutcliffe, Kent "Buy a vowel" Hrbek, Charlie Hough, Dave Henderson, Steve Sax, Bob Welch, Bill Gullickson, Lonnie Smith, and Bruce Hurst. Hubie Brooks was the only player on the ballot in 2000 to receive zero votes.  
To sum up of the 30 players on the ballot 2 were elected to the HOF that year, 5 more were eventually elected for a total of 7.  10 players received greater than 5% support in 2000 but failed to be elected to the HOF,  13 players failed to receive 5% of the vote and were elinated from further ballots.  Only 1 of the 14 players on the ballot for the first time in 2000 made it to the HOF. 

Next year, I hope to close the book on 2001 prior to my Hall of Fame coverage.

Coming Soon:  New Look Bears? 


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