Monday, January 4, 2016

Preview of 2016 HOF 1st time ballot and rev

Each year there players on the Baseball Writers Association of Anaerica (BBWAA) ballot for the first time.  These players have been retired from baseball the requisite amount of years and now get consideration for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  This year there are 15 such players.  Last year there were 17.  Before I preview the 15 players on the ballot for the first time in 2016, lets review the 17 former newbies and see how they did. The 17 from 15 and the 15 from 16 will fall into 4 potential categories  ...
Make it into the HOF on their first ballot by receiving at least 75% of the votes.

Receive enough votes to stay on the ballot for the next election (5%) but not enough for enshrinement in their first year (75%)

Receive some votes but not the 5% needed to appear on subsequent ballots.

Recieve no votes what so ever.

The 17 player on the ballot for the first time in 2015 were ...
all lists in alphabetical order

Look Ma no votes!

Rich Aurilla
Tony Clark
Jermaine Dye
Cliff Floyd 
Brian Giles
Eddie Guardado 
Jason Schmidt

Some but not enough to stay.

Aaron Boone
Carlos Delgado
Darin Erstad
Tom Gordon 
Troy Percival

Maybe Later

Nomar Garciaparra 
Gary Sheffield

HOF Baby!

Randy Johnson 
Pedro Martinez
John Smoltz

It is noteworthy, but not surprising that 7 of the 17 (41 %)1st timers on the ballot failed to get even one vote.  Add that to the 5 who failed to get 5 % or more and you have 71% attrition rate.  In 2014 there were 19 1st timers on the ballot 3 were elected to the hall, 2 received enough votes to stay on the ballot for the next year, 8 received some votes but less than 5 %, and 6 failed to get any votes.  In 2013 none of the 24 appearing on the ballot for the first time were elected in their first year,  6 remained on the ballot for the next year,  8 received some votes but less than 5 % and 10 failed to get any votes.

In the last 3 years 35 % of first time players on the ballot received some votes but not enough votes for future consideration with 38.33% getting no votes at all.  whereas 26.67% were either voted into the HOF on the 1st ballot (10%) or were able to come back the next year (16.67%)

If the percentages hold for the 15 newcomers on this years ballot 1.5 players will be elected on the first ballot and 2.5 players getting enough votes to stay on for the 2017 ballot.  Since there are no half players lets's say 1-2 will be first ballot hallof famers and 2-3 will hang on until next year.  This leaves 11 to not get enough votes to return in 2017.  Again if recent percentages hold 6 will get no votes at all,  and 5 will get some votes but less than 5 % as you peruse the list below imagine which ones will be in what category come Tuesday night

Garret Anderson (Angels,Braves,Dodgers)
Brad Ausmus (Astros,Tigers, Padres, Dodgers)
Luis Castillo (Marlins, Mets, Twins)
David Eckstein (Angels,Cardinals,Padres,Blue Jays, Diamondbacks)
Jim Edmonds (Cardinals,Angels,Cubs,Brewers,Padres,Reds)
Troy Glaus (Angels,BlueJays,Cardinals,Diamondback,Braves)
Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners, Reds, White Sox)
Mark Grudzielanek (Dodgers,Royals,Expos,Cubs,Cardinals)
Mike Hampton (Astros, Braves Rockies, Mets, Mariners, Diamond Backs)
Trevor Hoffman (Padres,Brewers,Marlins)
Jason Kendall (Pirates,Athletics,Brewers,Royals,Cubs)
Mike Lowell (Marlins,Red Sox, Yankees)
Mike Sweeney (Royals,Mariners,Athletics,Phillies)
Billy Wagner (Astros,Braves,Phillies,Mets,Red Sox)
Randy Winn(Giants,Devil Rays, Mariners,Cardinals,Yankees0



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